Italy vs Serbia

Serbia controlled the game from the opening tip. Nikola Jović led all scorers with 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting from the field, as reported by NBA.com's game coverage, while Nikola Jokić — averaging 21.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game in the qualifiers per FIBA's team profile — orchestrated the offence. Aleksa Avramović added support from the backcourt, contributing his tournament average of 12.3 points and facilitating the offence with 5.3 assists per game.

The defining individual moment came from guard Jovan Novak, whose TISSOT Buzzer Beater was highlighted on FIBA's official channels — a dagger that underscored Serbia's supremacy in the second half.

Italy, which entered the window with a 5-1 record and atop Group J alongside Türkiye, never found rhythm offensively. Held to just 64 points, the Azzurri fell well short of their tournament scoring average of 85.7 points per game (second in Europe's Second Round). Their 3-point shooting, normally at 33.7% as a team in the qualifiers, was effectively neutralised by Serbia's length and rotations.

Italy had won the last three senior meetings between these sides — at the 2023 FIBA World Cup (78-76), EuroBasket 2022 (94-86) and the 2021 Olympic Qualifying Tournament (102-95) — but Serbia flipped the script with a first-quarter defensive stand. According to FIBA's game information page, Serbia held Italy to just 13 points in the opening quarter, building a lead they never relinquished. The physicality of Jokić and Jović in the paint, combined with the perimeter pressure from Avramović and Nikola Đurišić, prevented Italy from generating the transition offence that had fuelled their 5-1 start.

Nikola Jović (Serbia) — 21 points, 9-15 FG: The Miami Heat forward was the game's high scorer and most efficient offensive player, consistently finding gaps in Italy's half-court defence. His two-way impact included blocks at the rim (averaging 2.5 per game in the qualifiers per FIBA stats).

Nikola Jokić (Serbia): The Denver Nuggets superstar didn't need to match his gaudiest scoring numbers, but his 12.0 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game averages (per FIBA team statistics) translated directly into Serbia's control of the glass and the tempo. His presence drew constant defensive attention, opening looks for Jović and Novak.

Jovan Novak (Serbia): The veteran guard provided the game's signature highlight with the TISSOT Buzzer Beater, a moment FIBA featured on its official YouTube channel.

Player of the Match: Nikola Jović, whose 21 points on high efficiency powered Serbia's offence and whose defensive versatility stifled Italy's perimeter attack.

The betmana.co.uk match page already displays the final score and H2H record. What those raw numbers don't show is the story behind them: Serbia's defence held Italy to 64 points — 21.7 below their tournament average of 85.7 ppg. The Azzurri entered the fourth window as the second-highest scoring team in the European Second Round (behind only Poland), but Serbia's combination of interior size (Jokić, Jović, Luka Mitrović) and backcourt pressure (Avramović, Đurišić) collapsed Italy's spacing. Serbia's own offensive efficiency, led by Jović and facilitated by Jokić, was never seriously challenged after the first quarter.

The result knots both teams at 5-2 (12 points) in Group J, behind only unbeaten Türkiye (6-0, 12 points). The top three teams from each Second Round group qualify for the 2027 FIBA World Cup in Qatar, so both Italy and Serbia remain firmly in qualification positions — but Serbia now holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Italy should points finish level.

Italy's next fixture will come in the fifth qualifying window (November 2026), while Serbia's momentum carries forward with renewed confidence after ending their three-game losing streak to the Azzurri. For a betting audience, the key takeaway is defensive: Serbia held Italy to 64 points, and if that defensive identity carries into the next window, Serbia's value in handicap markets rises significantly.

Serbia arrived in Pesaro having lost three straight to Italy and responded with their best defensive performance of the qualifiers. Jović's scoring and Jokić's all-court game overwhelmed the Azzurri, who now must regroup after seeing their 5-1 start dented. These two sides are likely bound for Qatar — but Serbia served notice that they, not Italy, are the team to watch behind Türkiye in Group J.