Championship· Season 2019
Match Summary
Derby defeated Millwall 3:2. The match was played in Championship 2019.
Millwall and Derby have met 21 times — Millwall won 9, Derby won 5, with 7 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2011. Millwall leads the head-to-head with 9 victories from 21 meetings. A combined 41 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 1.95 per match (19 for the home side, 22 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 8 matches (38%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 games (33%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. Millwall are currently unbeaten in the last 7 meetings. The highest-scoring encounter finished 3–3 in 2015.
Recent Meetings
Recent Form
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Head-to-Head Record
Even recordHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
1.9
Average goals per game
20%
Games with 3+ goals
50%
Both teams scored
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (20%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (40%) — the odds may underestimate Derby.
Market Summary
Margin: 4.3%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 2.38 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| Max | 2.43 | 3.20 | 3.31 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 40.1% | 30.5% | 29.4% |
| Public market | 39.6% | 30.7% | 29.7% |
Millwall vs Derby — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result differed from market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Head-to-Head History
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Data: football-data.co.uk
Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
API data: 14 May 2026