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Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen

5 March 2023 at 15:45Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
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Ajax

10
Referee: J. Kamphuis

Match Summary

Ajax defeated NEC Nijmegen 1:0. The match was played in Eredivisie 2022.

Rivalry since 2010

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen Head to Head Results· 21

Ajax and NEC Nijmegen have met 21 times — Ajax won 13, NEC Nijmegen won 1, with 7 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2010. Ajax leads the head-to-head with 13 victories from 21 meetings. A combined 76 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 3.62 per match (55 for the home side, 21 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 14 matches (67%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 16 games (76%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. NEC Nijmegen are currently unbeaten in the last 3 meetings. The highest-scoring encounter finished 1–6 in 2012.

13
wins
Drawn
7
·
Total goals
76 · 3.6/match
Both scored
14/21 · 67%
Over 2.5
16/21 · 76%

Recent Meetings

21/02/26Eredivisie
Match Details
20/12/25Eredivisie
Match Details
11/05/25Eredivisie
Match Details
01/12/24Eredivisie
Match Details
18/02/24Eredivisie
Match Details
03/12/23Eredivisie
Match Details
08/01/23Eredivisie
Match Details
23/04/22Eredivisie
Match Details
14/08/21Eredivisie
Match Details
08/04/17Eredivisie
Match Details
Highest-scoring game: 16 v 2012

Recent Form

WWonDDrawnLLost

In their last 6 matches, Ajax have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat. NEC Nijmegen show 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses from their last 6 outings.

Ajax

DWDLDW

Betting Odds & Historical Data

Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.

Historical data only — not for betting

This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.

Head-to-Head Record

Even record

Historical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.

Ajax5wins
4draws10 meetings
NEC Nijmegen1wins

Goals in This Fixture

How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.

2.8

Average goals per game

60%

Games with 3+ goals

60%

Both teams scored

Potential Betting Value Detected

Historical win rate (40%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (77%) — the odds may underestimate NEC Nijmegen.

Market Summary

Margin: 5.9%

Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.

Implied Probability

Home 81.3%Draw 15.9%Away 8.6%

Odds Range

1X2
Min1.225.8011.00
Max1.256.6012.00
Over 2.5: 71.4%Under 2.5: 34.7%
Market favourite:Ajax · Heavy favourite

Market Consensus

Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.

1X2
Professional market77.2%14.6%8.2%
Public market77.0%14.5%8.5%

Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen — margin-removed probabilities

Result vs. Market

Ajax
Result vs. Market: Ajax (81%)

Result matched market prediction

Match Statistics

Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.

AjaxHalf-time:00NEC Nijmegen
19Shots5
7Shots on target2

Head-to-Head History

Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.

21 Feb 202625/261.75/4.33/4.00
20 Dec 202525/262.29/3.96/2.72
11 May 202524/251.31/5.57/8.78
1 Dec 202424/254.45/3.95/1.71
18 Feb 202423/241.40/5.28/6.37
3 Dec 202323/244.22/4.35/1.69
5 Mar 202322/231.23/6.30/11.60
8 Jan 202322/237.55/5.37/1.37
23 Apr 202221/2212.95/6.79/1.21
14 Aug 202121/221.09/9.93/25.43

Home Record / Away Record

Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.

Home Record: Ajax

W 739D 213L 160
Over 2.565
Goals scored2743

Away Record: NEC Nijmegen

W 283D 238L 396
Over 2.553
Goals scored1183

Data: football-data.co.uk

Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

API data: 14 May 2026