Championship· Season 2025
Match Summary
Oxford United defeated Derby 1:0. The match was played in Championship 2025. Goals were scored by S. Mills 24′. 5 yellow cards were shown. Oxford United had 49% possession while Derby held 51%. Oxford United had 19 shots (7 on target) compared to 6 (1 on target) for Derby. Expected goals: Oxford United 2.17 — Derby 0.25. Oxford United made 3 substitutions, Derby made 5.
Match Events
Key match events between Oxford United and Derby — 1 goal and 5 cards recorded during the match.
assist: B. De Keersmaecker
Match Statistics
Oxford United had 49% possession against Derby's 51%. Oxford United registered 19 shots (7 on target) while Derby managed 6 (1 on target). Corner kicks: 4–12. Fouls committed: 19–6.
Rivalry since 2022
Oxford United vs Derby Head to Head Results· 7
Oxford United and Derby have met 7 times — Oxford United won 1, Derby won 4, with 2 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2022. Derby leads the head-to-head with 4 victories from 7 meetings. A combined 17 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 2.43 per match (7 for the home side, 10 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 4 matches (57%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 3 games (43%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. Derby are currently unbeaten in the last 4 meetings. The highest-scoring encounter finished 2–3 in 2023.
Recent Meetings
Recent Form
In their last 6 matches, Oxford United have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Derby show 3 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from their last 6 outings.
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
1
Average goals per game
0%
Games with 3+ goals
25%
Both teams scored
Head-to-Head Record
Even recordHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (50%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (37%) — the odds may underestimate Oxford United.
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Market Summary
Margin: 6.7%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 2.40 | 2.97 | 2.95 |
| Max | 2.57 | 3.05 | 3.08 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 37.0% | 32.1% | 30.9% |
| Public market | 38.5% | 30.3% | 31.3% |
| Δ | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
Oxford United vs Derby — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result matched market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Home Record: Oxford United
Away Record: Derby
Data: football-data.co.uk
Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
API data: 12 May 2026