Primeira Liga· Season 2025
Match Summary
Estrela and Nacional drew 1:1. The match was played in Primeira Liga 2025.
Estrela and Nacional have met 7 times — Estrela won 3, Nacional won 3, with 1 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2021. A combined 12 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 1.71 per match (5 for the home side, 7 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 1 match (14%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 1 game (14%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. The highest-scoring encounter finished 4–1 in 2021.
Recent Meetings
Recent Form
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
1.8
Average goals per game
0%
Games with 3+ goals
25%
Both teams scored
Head-to-Head Record
Even recordHistorical results between these two teams — showing who has dominated this fixture and whether the current odds reflect that pattern.
Potential Betting Value Detected
Historical win rate (50%) differs significantly from the market-implied probability (34%) — the odds may underestimate Estrela.
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Market Summary
Margin: 6.6%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 2.70 | 3.16 | 2.50 |
| Max | 2.81 | 3.20 | 2.65 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 33.9% | 30.1% | 35.9% |
| Public market | 34.2% | 28.9% | 36.9% |
| Δ | 0.3% | 1.3% | 1.0% |
Estrela vs Nacional — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result differed from market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Data: football-data.co.uk
Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
API data: 14 May 2026