Ligue 1· Season 2025
Match Summary
Marseille and Toulouse drew 2:2. The match was played in Ligue 1 2025. Goals were scored by Emersonn 14′, I. Paixao 66′, P. Hojbjerg 74′, S. Hidalgo 90′. 3 yellow cards were shown. Marseille had 77% possession while Toulouse held 23%. Marseille had 20 shots (5 on target) compared to 6 (4 on target) for Toulouse. Expected goals: Marseille 1.80 — Toulouse 0.70. Marseille made 5 substitutions, Toulouse made 5.
Match Events
assist: P. Aubameyang
assist: M. McKenzie
Match Statistics
Marseille had 77% possession against Toulouse's 23%. Marseille registered 20 shots (5 on target) while Toulouse managed 6 (4 on target). Corner kicks: 9–1. Fouls committed: 7–10.
Marseille and Toulouse have met 28 times — Marseille won 17, Toulouse won 1, with 10 draws. Their rivalry dates back to 2010. Marseille leads the head-to-head with 17 victories from 28 meetings. A combined 77 goals have been scored across these fixtures, averaging 2.75 per match (55 for the home side, 22 for the visitors). Both teams scored in 15 matches (54%). Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 games (46%), making it a fixture that tends to produce goals. Marseille are currently unbeaten in the last 24 meetings. The highest-scoring encounter finished 6–1 in 2022.
Recent Meetings
Recent Form
Betting Odds & Historical Data
Opening pre-match odds recorded for this fixture at the time it was played. These are historical figures for analytical reference only and do not reflect any current market.
Historical data only — not for betting
This data is sourced from football-data.co.uk and covers historical match results and pre-match odds. These figures do not represent current or live odds and cannot be used for placing bets. Betting is not possible on this website. Provided for analytical and research purposes only.
Goals in This Fixture
How many goals these two teams typically produce when they meet, based on their historical encounters.
3.3
Average goals per game
60%
Games with 3+ goals
60%
Both teams scored
Historical results between these two teams. Bold odds show which outcome was backed by the market — compare against the actual result to assess predictability of this fixture over time.
Market Summary
Margin: 4.3%Implied win probabilities calculated from pre-match odds across multiple sources. A higher percentage means the market considered that outcome more likely. Compare these against your own assessment to spot potential value.
Implied Probability
Odds Range
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Min | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.51 |
| Max | 1.62 | 4.17 | 6.00 |
Market Consensus
Professional markets (sharp bookmakers) reflect sharp money and are harder to beat. Public markets are softer. When the two disagree significantly (highlighted in amber), it may indicate a mispriced line worth investigating.
| 1 | X | 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Professional market | 59.4% | 23.1% | 17.5% |
| Public market | 59.6% | 24.5% | 15.9% |
| Δ | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
Marseille vs Toulouse — margin-removed probabilities
Result vs. Market
Result differed from market prediction
Match Statistics
Actual in-game statistics recorded for this match. Shots on target is a strong indicator of attacking pressure and correlates well with expected goals.
Home Record / Away Record
Aggregated season statistics from all available historical data. Use these to assess each team's overall form, scoring frequency, and tendency for high-scoring matches.
Data: football-data.co.uk
Statistics are for informational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
API data: 12 May 2026